Predict Mobile’s Future by Looking Back

Brian DeaganI wrote a blog post here on The Lunch Pail about Google's Android almost two years ago (June 2008). Specifically, the post was about the need for multi-tasking on mobile phones. It's nice to hear that Apple is finally making it available in OS 4.0. Given the timeliness of Apple's announcement, it makes sense to provide some additional thoughts.

Back then I doubted if Android would be an iPhone killer. Today it is very plausible. Especially if Microsoft, Google, and Adobe decide to team up and kill the iPhone together. I realize that may sounds nuts, but there was something to the phrase “enemy of my enemy is my friend” 2500 years ago, and that principle will likely play out somehow in the next five, too.

There is precedent for Apple getting its “superior and more elegant” ass/Mac kicked by competitors who know how to appeal to developers. Steve Jobs is a genius with product design, but his track record is less genius-y when we’re talking software platforms and developer communities (unless you’re a whiz with Objective C… which, by the way, was the main language for the NeXTSTEP OS back in 1986).

Apple has definitely made some unpopular moves for developers with iPhone OS 4.0. Jobs has overplayed his hand in the past, and it seems like he might be doing it again.

What do you think?

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